Winter has traditionally been a productive time of year for the forest products industry in the Northeast. Landowners schedule timber harvests in the winter season to take advantage of frozen grounds so that equipment can travel with minimal damage to soils and water resources. Snow cover helps protect logging equipment from wear. For mills, winter is the time to stockpile a supply of wood in anticipation of reduced availability in the spring mud season.
In recent years, warmer and wetter conditions have interrupted these established work patterns. In much of the northeastern United States, average December and January temperatures are more than four degrees (Fahrenheit) warmer than they were in the 1980s.
“The winter season can be very unpredictable,” said Colleen Goodridge, owner of Goodridge Lumber Mill in Albany, Vermont, which celebrated its 45th year in business last winter. Specializing in the production of white cedar products, Goodridge Lumber generally receives more than 80 percent of their supply between December and March. “That’s our window of opportunity,” said Goodridge.
White cedar is naturally resistant to decay and insects and holds a high insulation value, which makes it valuable for use in log homes, siding, decking, lumber, and fencing. Because it typically grows in wet forests and swampy conditions, white cedar can be difficult to harvest in the warmer months.
For Goodridge and others in the forest products industry, new climate realities require flexibility. Goodridge said, “We don’t exactly know what the weather is going to bring us from December to mud time, and that’s the fruitful time to get the year’s wood supply. We just have to get it when it’s available.”
In a recent study funded by U.S. Forest Service’s State and Private Forestry program and in partnership with the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation, we investigated the impacts of climate change on the forest products supply chain in the Northeast.
Throughout the supply chain, we found subtle, but important, adaptations. Forest owners, foresters, loggers, and mills are making creative adjustments in order to achieve stewardship goals while still meeting consumer demands for wood products.
A LATE START TO THE WINTER SEASON
Anyone who has been around long enough will tell you we don’t get winters like we used to. Ray Berthiaume, a forester with Wagner Forest Management in New Hampshire, remembers years past when he needed to strap on snowshoes as early as late November. “We haven’t had winters like that in a long time,” he said.
In a career covering more than 30 years, Berthiaume has also seen changes in precipitation, bringing more intense rainfalls and longer storms. He added that, while wet springs have always been a challenge, “Now, fall mud season is worse than spring mud season.” Increased precipitation in the fall can be particularly troublesome, according to Berthiaume – because loggers are trying to prepare for a busy winter. If soils are saturated in the fall, inoperable conditions extend later in the year, pushing back the start of a winter logging season.
We examined time-series climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and found evidence supporting observations like Berthiaume’s. Comparing the 1980s to the 2010s, we see warmer winters, as well as increased precipitation. After consulting with David Hollinger at the USDA’s Northeast Climate Hub, we settled on average monthly temperatures of 25 degrees as an indicator of a December start for solid freezing winter conditions and 20 degrees as an indicator of full-on freezing conditions in January.
Looking at county-level average December temperatures reveals a delayed onset of cold winter conditions. In the 1980s, 57 counties in four northeastern states (Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont) had average December temperatures below 25 degrees. Cold conditions allowed forest workers to freeze access roads and landing sites in preparation for winter harvests. In this process, onsite material – often just topsoil – is shaped into a roadway or landing and frozen in place, offering a cost-effective alternative to building gravel roads in places that don’t merit the expense of building more permanent infrastructure.
In the 2010s, only 18 counties had cold Decembers, effectively pushing back the start of the winter logging season. According to Berthiaume, “Used to be, you do freezing in December and early January and you were good. Now we typically can’t start to freeze until after Christmas.” (See figure 1)
In his work managing more than half a million acres of timberland in northern New Hampshire, Berthiaume has adjusted to a changing climate. For winter logging projects, he tries to maximize productivity in February and early March, adding that anything past March 15 is a bonus. He finds himself moving crews around more because of weather conditions. In some areas that were previously considered “winter-only,” he now tries to find dry periods in the summer or fall when loggers can work with minimal ground disturbance. “You work the ground for the weather you have,” said Berthiaume.
OVERCOMING MIDWINTER THAWS
Solidly cold winter conditions in January are crucial to realizing a productive season in the forest products supply chain – for scheduled harvests, harvesting operations, and for fulfilling mill-supply goals. If January is lost, there is little room for making up for lost time in the spring.
Comparing average January temperatures from the 1980s to the 2010s again reveals a warming trend. In recent years, 30 fewer counties in the Northeast have frozen winter conditions in January. Note that local conditions within counties may vary, so that if it were possible to map temperature data at the individual town level, a somewhat different spatial pattern would likely emerge. (See figure 2)
According to forester Kevin Virkler, January thaws are bigger now than ever before in the Adirondack region, where he helps to manage more than 50,000 acres owned by the Adirondack League Club. In recent years, heavy midwinter rains have brought mud season even in January and February.
Recognizing this change, Virkler focuses on trying to get winter roads prepped as much as possible by the end of the year. “If they can get on it between Christmas and New Year’s, you’ll be able to withstand a January thaw.” Otherwise, it can be too late. “If you are getting on it in the middle of January,” he added, “it’s a whole different road system.” When roads are too soft to handle fully loaded logging trucks, he hauls half loads if conditions allow. Even with this reduced weight, compaction from the logging trucks helps to freeze the road and get it in condition for winter.
One hundred miles to the south, the Watershed Agricultural Council (WAC) is a nonprofit organization that works with farm and forest landowners in the Catskills to protect New York City’s water supply. WAC watershed forester Karl VonBerg said, “Basically, we have year-round mud season.” He adds that it is difficult to make up for lost time in midwinter, but the industry is adjusting. “You try to figure out how to work windows of time. You look at the weather.” Unfortunately, this can result in startstop patterns of logging production and mill supply.
WETTER CONDITIONS: MORE MUD, MORE PROBLEMS
In addition to warmer temperatures, NOAA data also show trends toward wetter conditions over the past few decades, particularly in the summer and fall. In the Northern states of Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont, the most notable increases in precipitation take place in June – with average rainfall increasing from 4.1 to 5.1 inches - and in October – where average rainfall of 3.5 inches in the 1980s has increased by 1.5 inches to 5 inches over the last decade.
In southern New England and Pennsylvania, September, October, and December are all wetter than they were 30 years ago. Each of these months now brings more than 4 inches of precipitation – at least an inch more than what was seen in the 1980s.
Although November actually has less precipitation in recent years – by more than an inch throughout the Northeast – drier weather so late in the fall does little to make ground conditions operable for timber harvesting. With shorter days, cooler temperatures, and the loss of leaf cover, both evaporation and transpiration slow down in November, and wet soils can persist from the previous months. (See table 1)
Wet weather is troublesome for harvesting operations at any time. Deep skidder and forwarder ruts, heavy runoff, and increased sedimentation – threatening to damage wetlands and water resources – come with these conditions. Loggers, and the landowners and mills that depend on them, must either wait out the wet times or find creative ways to prevent or minimize damage.
At the Adirondack League Club, forester Virkler is working to upgrade infrastructure to adjust to increased precipitation. For example, he upsizes culverts when they need to be replaced, so that they can handle heavy rain events that are more common these days. In other locations, where large culverts are not adequate, Virkler builds broad, sturdy bridges with steel frames and reinforces stream banks with riprap. This type of infrastructure is better equipped to handle intense storms and wetter conditions year-round. In addition, Virkler is doing more ditching on his hard road system to accommodate runoff.
Virkler added however, that wet weather sometimes requires work stoppages on rainy days, a fact that cuts into the profitability for logging crews. He noted that some crews will have two jobs and two log landing areas set up at once, in hopes that if it is raining on one job, they will still be able to work at the second location. This is a useful strategy for loggers with spare equipment or who can readily move equipment between job sites.
BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR WATER QUALITY
At the same time as these climatic changes, there has been closer scrutiny on the impact of logging on water and wetlands. In response, the forestry profession has developed Best Management Practices for water quality (BMPs) for use in timber harvesting. Depending on the state, BMPs were first introduced in the 1980s and 1990s. In many ways, BMPs came along just as they were needed most, when warmer conditions began to interfere with traditional forest operations and larger equipment was being introduced.
Prior to this time, while there was concern about water quality and erosion due to logging, there were limited policies and a few specific regulations in place. For the most part, loggers simply focused on avoiding water quality violations under the law, and preventing obvious examples of erosion that landowners, loggers, and foresters found unsettling.
Today, BMPs (called Acceptable Management Practices, or AMPs, in Vermont) have become a commonly accepted standard for logging in the Northeast. Many state-level BMP publications are in the form of illustrated guides that show how to implement structural practices – such as culverts, bridges, and re-enforced roads – to prevent sedimentation of streams and alteration of wetlands.
In most states, BMPs are voluntary, although they have become integrated into many timber sale contracts, conservation easements, and land management certification standards. For example, in Vermont, AMPs are required for all properties enrolled in the state’s Current Use program – a tax incentive available to owners of agricultural and forestry land. For these properties, AMPs must be in place during and after timber harvesting. Because a significant portion of the private forest land in Vermont is enrolled in this program, widespread implementation of these practices is evident, despite occasional violations.
CREATIVE SOLUTIONS TO PROTECT WATER QUALITY
Matt Langlais is the county forester in Essex and Caledonia counties, in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, where his career in the forest products industry has spanned nearly 20 years. His work involves administering the Current Use program in his counties, among other responsibilities. Langlais noted, “The attention being paid to AMPs has coincided with these weather events. They combine to make things more difficult for our harvest crews.”
However, Langlais also mentioned several ways that people in his area are working to adjust to wetter conditions. “I see short haul, local concentration yards as becoming more and more important,” he noted. This approach focuses on maximizing productivity on sensitive sites during dry or frozen conditions. Then, during wet periods, forest products can be hauled to their final destination, even when ground conditions at the original harvesting site do not allow access.
Timing is also important, according to Langlais, who advises landowners to plan based on the weather. “Save that good ground,” he counseled, hoping that logging crews will focus on upland areas during winter thaws and work in wet lowlands only under frozen conditions.
For the Watershed Agricultural Council’s work protecting New York City’s water supply, BMPs are a critical consideration. The organization has funding to help forest workers cover the costs of BMP compliance. WAC Watershed Forester Karl VonBerg noted that some crews prioritize BMPs as much as possible. “We have a category who just do everything right,” said VonBerg. “They really care about it.”
In the Adirondacks, Virkler has adopted a range of new practices to help navigate BMPs and still achieve silvicultural goals.
He tries to keep skidding distance to a minimum – less than a mile whenever possible. During logging operations, Virkler asks loggers to use woody debris for temporary runoff control. He agrees to handle the after-the-fact BMP work himself or with his own equipment. For example, Virkler may take responsibility for smoothing ruts and installing water bars that divert storm runoff away from roads. By taking on these tasks, Virkler allows loggers to move on to other jobs after the harvest is completed and ensures that the work is completed to his own high standards.
For Virkler, all of this work has required an upgrade in equipment, including an excavator, dump trucks, and front-end loaders – equipment he didn’t have in the past, but needs now to maintain and update the road system.
Indeed, many crews have added new equipment to be able to address BMPs – largely through repairs and restoration after logging is completed. In Vermont, Matt Langlais sees an excavator or bulldozer to be “absolutely critical,” helping to put things back together after a job is finished. In southern Vermont near the New York border, logger and forester Gabe Russo of Southwind Forestry bought an excavator a few years ago. “The point of the excavator was to implement AMPs,” he said. “We use it all the time.”
PUBLIC ROADS
After wood is harvested, it is loaded on trucks for transport to mills or other markets. But, public roads are subject to posting, restricting loaded truck travel during times when roads could be damaged. Typically, this is done at the end of the winter as the frost comes out of the road. Posted roads can effectively rule out trucking of forest products.
Historical road-posting patterns followed the weather in a predictable fashion and tended to correspond with the end of winter harvesting. In some places, this pattern remains in place, but elsewhere, road posting is occurring earlier and, sometimes even midwinter, during periods of thaws. In southern Vermont, logger Gabe Russo has seen roads posted in January or February, interrupting typically busy winter logging operations.
Highway superintendents have traditionally had a shared culture of understanding with forest products professionals.
Superintendents have had the flexibility to alter or suspend road posting so that forest products could be transported. But, some of those interviewed expressed concern that this shared culture is being lost with changes in the rural population.
In the Northeast Kingdom, Matt Langlais noted one creative solution: a logging contractor in his area hired a town road foreman to help maintain nearby logging roads. This kind of relationship building can be a way to develop understanding and cooperation.
SCHEDULING SOLUTIONS
Considering a changing climate and the complications for forest operations, forest managers and landowners have been making adjustments as well. Forest managers report that longer contract windows for timber sales are necessary to ensure that work can be completed. One forester suggested that a sale that requires six months of acceptable ground conditions to complete warrants an 18-month contract window. Procurement staff from sawmills report seeking longer contracts whenever possible.
Landowners note that timber sale contract extensions have become more common. These extensions are driven by both the unreliability of weather conditions and by logging contractor availability. When ground conditions for harvesting are good, most logging contractors are fully committed, and they can’t be in two places at once.
From a landowner and forest manager standpoint, it is preferable to extend contracts rather than to allow harvesting when conditions are unsuitable. Sites that have limited windows of operability require vigilant monitoring of conditions and enforcement of contract safeguards. Mills seek to minimize the risk of paying for timber that weather conditions make them unable to harvest or truck within the contractual window.
Logger Gabe Russo has always seen one-year timber sale contracts in the past. “Now I do two,” he said, emphasizing the fact that a two-year window is required to ensure the appropriate weather conditions to remove timber in any one area.
A NEW NORMAL
Moving forward, it seems likely that the forest products industry will need to continue to adjust to new climate realities. Long, cold winters may still occur, but warm, wet Januarys are also likely. Loggers can no longer rely on frozen conditions to protect grounds and water resources. Mills may have to adjust procurement schedules to accommodate reduced supply in the winter or to expand their procurement distances. Foresters and landowners will have to build flexibility into harvesting schedules.
It is possible that a changing climate could offer new opportunities for the forest products industry. Tom Paslevich, WAC forestry program director, proposed, “I think we confront climate change by casting the forest products industry as a partner.” He added, “We need people with experience in the woods to create the forest that is resilient.”
The forest products industry relies on well-maintained forests and clearly has an incentive to care for forested lands. In the face of climate change, there is an opportunity to “place loggers and foresters as the environmental professionals they are,” according to Paslevich.
In the meantime, forest workers in the Northeast will continue to make adjustments to whatever climate changes come their way. Mill owner Colleen Goodridge summed it up this way: “We all know that the climate is changing, and we do our work using best practices, working with Mother Nature.”
Alison Berry is a natural resources research consultant at Woodland Resources. Steven Bick is a forestry consultant with Northeast Forests, LLC. Al Steele works for the U.S. Forest Service, State and Private Forestry, in Morgantown, West Virginia.
Full results and supply chain implications from their study are included in two publications: Climate Adaptations in the Northeast’s Forest Products Supply Chain and Northeastern Forest Products Supply Chain Climate Adaptation Toolkit.